Arakan's Precarious Crossroads: Caution, Memory, and Responsibility in the Face of Repatriation

By Warazein, GAN

Shortread: opinions                                                                             April 13, 2025

Bangladeshi Officials with Illegitimate Junta FM in Bangkok (photocrd)

The recent developments concerning the proposed repatriation of (Chittagonian) Muslim refugees from Bangladesh into Arakan have raised profound concerns among the people of Arakan and the leadership of the United League of Arakan/Arakan Army (ULA/AA). These concerns are not born of prejudice but grounded in historical trauma, geopolitical complexities, and the very real threats that continue to destabilize the region. As Myanmar’s SAC (State Administration Council) negotiates with Bangladesh to accept 180,000 refugees in a first wave—without having any effective control over Arakan’s border regions—the question arises: what are the motivations behind this move, and what are the potential consequences?

Historical Memory Matters

To understand today’s situation, one must first examine the weight of history. Arakan was a sovereign kingdom until 1784, when it was conquered by the Burmese. After 40 years of harsh rule, the British annexed Arakan in 1826 and initiated large-scale migration of Bengali Muslims into the region to work in agriculture. Over time, due to rapid population growth and continued migration, the Muslim population grew to outnumber the native Rakhine and other non-Muslim ethnic groups in several areas.

This demographic transformation did not occur without violence. In 1942, during the British retreat ahead of the Japanese invasion, the British armed Muslim militias supposedly to resist the Japanese advance. Instead, these militias unleashed horrific violence against non-Muslim communities, massacring thousands and displacing entire villages. The trauma of those events continues to echo in the collective memory of the Rakhine people.

In 1947, Muslims from the Chittagong area demanded that northern Arakan be annexed to East Pakistan, a demand that was ultimately rejected but never forgotten. Radical Islamic groups have since made repeated attempts to assert control over the region. Terms like "Arakanistan" have been coined by extremists, symbolizing their long-standing aim to carve out an Islamic state.

Modern Security Threats

Fast-forward to the last decade, and we witness the rise of ARSA (Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army), a terrorist organization that launched deadly attacks on security posts in 2016 and 2017. These coordinated assaults prompted a massive military response by the Tatmadaw, leading to the displacement of an estimated 750,000 people. While the military’s "Clearance Operation" has drawn international scrutiny, the provocations by ARSA and other armed actors have often been overlooked.

ARSA Terrorists Arresting and Killing Four Ethnic Mro Minorities in Buthidaung (photocrd)

Even today, ARSA and affiliated militants continue to sow terror in northern Arakan. The recent killing of AA soldiers, the murder of four Khami civilians, and the resurgence of extremist rhetoric, including a massive December 2024 rally calling for jihad, underscore the urgent threat posed by these groups. The fact that such a rally could occur—led by figures like Dil Mohammad, a former SAC collaborator—suggests a dangerous level of complicity from elements within the Bangladeshi state.

The SAC's Calculated Disruption

It is widely believed that the SAC, having lost control over much of Arakan to the ULA/AA, seeks to destabilize the region by engineering a premature and politically motivated repatriation process. The SAC's pledge to accept thousands of refugees without coordinating with the de facto authorities on the ground (i.e., the ULA/AA) is both irresponsible and provocative. Analysts believe this move may be designed to create social tensions, trigger unrest, and shift the narrative internationally.

Chittagonian Muslims in Refugee Camps of Bangladesh (photocrd)

A Responsible Path Forward: Phased and Conditional Repatriation

The ULA/AA has expressed its willingness to accept eligible returnees in principle, but only when conditions are right. These conditions are not arbitrary; they are essential to ensuring lasting peace, security, and coexistence. The following steps are proposed as a roadmap:

1. Stabilize Security First: All militant and terrorist activities by ARSA and affiliated groups must be eradicated from Arakan. No repatriation should begin until law and order are fully restored.

2. Groundwork Infrastructure: Build proper housing, healthcare, and educational facilities in safe zones with international oversight to ensure neutrality and quality.

3. Skills Training and Livelihood Preparation: Provide vocational training and job creation initiatives so returnees can integrate economically and avoid dependency.

4. Social Cohesion and Civic Education: Launch inclusive civic programs aimed at healing past wounds, promoting tolerance, and instilling a culture of peaceful coexistence.

5. Verification and Vetting: A robust system must be in place to distinguish civilians from militants. Only those without ties to extremist organizations should be considered eligible for return.

6. Phased Repatriation: Return must happen in small, manageable phases, monitored by neutral international observers to ensure safety and compliance.

7. Community Involvement: Local non-Muslim communities must be involved in every phase of planning and implementation to build trust and foster mutual understanding.

   
   

Conclusion: Responsibility Over Rhetoric

The history of Arakan is one of resilience, trauma, and survival. Any policy that ignores this history and the current ground realities risks plunging the region into renewed conflict. The ULA/AA stands at a difficult crossroads, balancing humanitarian values with the urgent need to protect its people and territory from the threat of extremist infiltration. Repatriation must be pursued cautiously, with eyes wide open, and with the well-being of all communities—Muslim and non-Muslim alike—at its core.