One Year of Arakanese Victory - Three Notable Changes

By Rhee Rakha, GAN

Shortread: Opinions                                                                          November 19, 2024

AA Soldiers in Ann (Photocrd)

Following the "1027 Operation" led by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BTAs) in northern Shan State, the Arakan Army (AA), the armed wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA), resumed its attacks against the Myanmar military junta on November 13, 2023. This ended a year-long ceasefire that had begun in late November 2022. Although initial attacks occurred in Rathedaung Township, the main military operations unfolded in Paletwa Township, near the Indian border. In response, the State Administration Council (SAC) imposed a blockade, restricting trade, travel, and transportation within and outside Arakan.

Now, one year after the resumption of hostilities, three notable changes have taken place in Arakan.

Number One - AA Achieved Unprecedented Military Success Among Arakanese Revolutionary Movements

Arakanese armed struggles stem from diverse motivations, including the lack of political self-determination, extreme poverty, cultural suppression, and exploited resource sharing. Historically, the current revolutionary movement led by the ULA/AA under General Twan Mrat Naing can be considered the sixth wave of Arakanese liberation efforts since the fall of Arakan’s sovereignty in 1784. The first wave began in 1798 with Khyan Pran’s resistance against the Burmese, lasting until 1814. The second wave saw Prince Rhee Bann's unsuccessful revolt against British colonial rule in 1827.

The third wave emerged during World War II, as Arakanese leaders, notably the monk U Seinda, initiated another attempt at revolution, though his efforts were limited and met little success amidst the broader national unrest. In post-independence Burma, the fourth wave began with the founding of the Arakan Liberation Party (ALP) by Khaing Moe Linn in the late 1960s. The ALP became formally established in Karen National Union-controlled areas in 1972. Around the same time, the Arakan Independence Organization (AIO) led by San Kyaw Tun was formed under the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO). However, neither organization achieved substantial military victories.

The fifth wave began in 1991 with Khaing Razar’s formation of the first Arakan Army, which attempted to relocate forces from Karen State to Arakan but failed. The current wave, led by the ULA/AA, is the sixth and most advanced. It has achieved significant success, with the occupation of 12 township centers within one year, an unprecedented feat in Arakanese history.

Number Two - Collaboration Between Muslim Militants and the Myanmar Junta is Now Evident

Observers have often overlooked the complexity of the Muslim community’s political dynamics in Arakan. Not all conflicts are binary; innocent Arakanese, Hindus, and other minority groups have suffered due to terrorism from both the Bamar-led military and radical Islamic factions. Reports confirm a political alliance between the terrorist SAC and radical Islamic groups, such as the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), targeting the AA. Since the conflict resumed, ARSA forces have reportedly killed 22 civilians, injured 6, and arrested 46, with victims including Arakanese, Hindu, Mro, and Khumi civilians.

The RSO and ARSA have established political agreements with the Myanmar junta for power-sharing in Maungdaw and Buthidaung areas. This alliance disrupts social cohesion, peaceful coexistence, and regional stability, as these extremist groups continue terrorist activities after military losses to the AA in Buthidaung and Maungdaw.

Number Three - The ULA Has Become the Sole Governing Authority in Arakan

Before the current conflict, the ULA/AA’s formal control was limited to rural areas, with influence over approximately 80% of northern and central Arakan's countryside. However, with control of 12 township centers, the ULA has taken on formal governance, establishing the “Arakan People’s Revolutionary Government” (APRG) to oversee judiciary matters, general administration, policing, prisons, taxation, public health, agriculture, and forestry.

The SAC still holds certain towns, such as Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, Manaung, and Gwa, though Ann and Taungup are at risk of falling under ULA control. Soon, the ULA/AA may govern up to 15 of the 18 townships in Arakan, covering around 80-90% of the territory and population. This shift makes the ULA/AA the primary government in Arakan, a reality that regional and international stakeholders should acknowledge. Reconstruction of war-damaged infrastructure and restoration of public services are critical to rebuilding lives in Arakan. While some UN agencies have shown tangible collaboration with the ULA, neighboring countries with interests in the region—especially India, China, and Bangladesh—should take proactive steps to support the rightful government in Arakan.