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By GAN
Shortread: Opinions March 9, 2025
A confederation is a type of governmental structure that specifically describes the power relationship between two governing units. In this arrangement, one unit holds more power, while the other has less.
When forming a government, at least three main systems can be adopted: a unitary system, a federal system, or a confederation system. Some argue that a confederation is formed only when independent sovereign states unite, but this is not entirely correct. A confederation can also be established within a single sovereign unit.
Historically, the United States and Switzerland were structured as confederations. Some scholars also suggest that the current relationship between China and Taiwan is shifting toward a confederation model.
The confederation system can be beneficial when implemented according to specific political needs. This article will discuss why Arakan deserves a confederation system.
In Terms of Political Development:
Myanmar's independence in 1948 was a result of King Thibaw’s exile in 1885. Had Myanmar been governed under a system like the Shan’s Sawbwa or the Kachin's Duwa system, without King Thibaw, it would not have been an independent country, but rather a province of British India or the independent Union of India.
The reason for this is that Myanmar lost its independence due to an unnecessary form of governance, which did not require independence for its rulers. As the monarchy, which had full sovereign power, was ended by the British invasion, Myanmar regained its full independence in 1948.
Political development follows different stages, with every human society passing through various stages of political evolution. According to political anthropology, all nations progress through different levels: band-level societies, tribal-level societies, chiefdom-level societies, and finally, state-level societies.
With the arrival of the modern era, monarchies gradually shifted toward more people-based governance systems. The political development of the Arakanese also moved through similar stages, transitioning between a monarchy-based state and a nation-based state. At certain stages, it advanced toward a semi-nation-state, and modern political ideas have been developing since the northern kingdoms.
For example, the peaceful coexistence of pluralism and multiculturalism, the appointment (election) of the last king, Maha Thammaraja, by broader consent, and the free international trade rights are notable elements.
Thus, Arakanese political development was more advanced than other regions like Shan, Kachin, and Karen, and even surpassed that of the Burmese kingdoms of Amarapura and Mandalay.
In Terms of Historical Background:
The Arakanese entered Myanmar’s territory under very different circumstances compared to other ethnic groups. In 1784, they were unjustly conquered and annexed, and after 40 years, in 1824, they came under British colonial rule.
In 1948, they did not become an autonomous region but were included as part of the newly formed Union of Myanmar. This raises the question: why did the Arakanese not remain a separate entity like the Shan or Kachin?
The peace negotiations under the previous semi-democratic governments and the current junta regime are a direct consequence of the "Panglong Agreement" signed in 1947, which was primarily between the Burman-majority government and regional ethnic leaders. The Arakanese were not directly involved in this agreement.
The agreement was only between the Burman-majority government and the ethnic groups of Shan, Kachin, and Chin, not the Arakanese. Consequently, the federal system referenced in the Panglong Agreement applied only to the Shan and Kachin states.
However, the Arakanese did not just lose their place in the federal system but were deprived of full independence as a semi-nation state. Therefore, no agreement was signed with the government regarding their participation in the Union. This signifies that the Arakanese, unlike the Shan and Kachin, were not included in the federal system.
Current Situation:
In addition to the historical and political contexts above, the current conditions of Arakan also demonstrate the need for governance under a "Confederation" system:
The political will of the Arakanese people.
Longstanding existence as an independent and self-governed region.
Political development at a semi-national state level.
Lack of any agreement with the central government or other states.
Strong preservation of their own distinct culture.
Adequate economic resources for regional development.
Access to vital regional and international trade routes.
Strategic geographical positioning, separate from central Burma.
These eight conditions provide sufficient preconditions for establishing a "Confederation" system in Arakan.
The Future Path:
In the current military situation in Arakan, the military junta is facing significant losses and has committed numerous war crimes against the people of Arakan. Out of 18 townships in the Arakan region, around 15 are now under the full control of the Arakan Army (AA). On the other hand, the military junta's air force continues to target the people of Arakan based on ethnic hatred and aggression.
Approximately 90% of Arakan's territory is now under the control of the Arakan Army, and the strength of the AA is estimated to exceed 50,000 soldiers within the region. The remaining military-controlled areas are limited to the final three towns of Sittwe, Kyaukphyu, and the islands of Manaung, which the junta forces are still targeting.
Despite the prevailing conditions, the military junta and its forces are facing charges of genocide in international courts due to their crimes against humanity and war crimes. Under these dire circumstances, the people of Arakan's dream of a "Confederation" are growing closer to reality.
Therefore, the most suitable system for Arakan in the future will be a confederation, which is essential for the peace, security, and prosperity of its people.
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